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A MedPage Today opinion by Steven Grossman and Michael Miller argues that even if the 2026 midterms bring more pro-vaccine members to Congress, vaccines will remain vulnerable to executive and state-level actions. The authors expect continued federal policy fights after the new Congress begins on January 3, 2027, but those forecasts are analysis, not confirmed future decisions.
A MedPage Today opinion published October 20 argues that a stronger pro-vaccine presence in Congress after the 2026 midterms may not stop federal and state challenges to vaccine policy. Authors Steven Grossman, a lawyer, and Michael Miller, a physician, say executive branch actions and state proposals could continue even if Democrats win the House, as they expect, while the Senate outcome remains uncertain.
Grossman and Miller say vaccine advocates made progress during 2026 by raising awareness of the potential effects of anti-vaccine policies and building informal coalitions. They describe groups coordinating opposition to federal and state actions, including changes to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and reductions in routine vaccine recommendations. The article also says many medical societies issued their own routine vaccine guidance that largely matched ACIP recommendations before 2025.
The authors list additional disputes involving changes to federal health and Food and Drug Administration advisory groups, respiratory vaccine recommendations and state efforts to expand school vaccine exemptions. They also say vaccine policy did not become a larger national election issue amid attention to wars and higher energy and food prices, a mild 2025-26 flu season, measles outbreaks, and divisions within the Make America Healthy Again movement. These are the authors’ account and interpretation of the political landscape.
Looking ahead, the authors predict that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may pursue new or previously blocked vaccine policies after the election. They argue that congressional support may offer less protection than in past disputes because of the administration’s approach to executive power and court rulings. Those are forecasts: the opinion does not establish which policies will be pursued or what Congress, courts or states will do.
Congressional Gains May Have Limits
The issue matters because vaccine policy is shaped not only by legislation but also by agency recommendations, administrative decisions and state rules. If the authors’ analysis is right, a change in congressional representation would not by itself settle disputes over federal vaccine guidance or school requirements. Families, health professionals and state officials could continue to encounter different recommendations and policy rules across jurisdictions.
The article also points to the practical limits of elections as a policy safeguard. Congress can legislate and conduct oversight, but the authors contend that executive actions and litigation could keep vaccine policy contested after voters have cast their ballots. The scale of any effects remains unknown; the piece offers no confirmed account of future policy decisions or resulting changes in vaccination rates.
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The 2026 Vaccine Policy Debate
The authors describe 2025 as a period when President Donald Trump and Kennedy’s policies expanded, creating an opening for vaccine advocacy to become an election issue. In their account, advocates organized around federal and state proposals, while policy debates became more localized and fragmented during 2026. They say Kennedy temporarily pursued less direct measures after controversy over ACIP, but emphasize that they do not view this as a change in his overall position.
ACIP is a federal advisory committee whose recommendations inform routine immunization policy. The opinion says changes to the committee and its recommendations prompted legal challenges and parallel guidance from medical societies. Grossman and Miller also note that the authors of their earlier December 2025 opinion did not anticipate how election attention would be diverted by other national concerns.
““Even an outcome that brings more pro-vaccine members to Congress will still leave vaccines facing long-term existential threats at both the federal and state levels.””
— Steven Grossman and Michael Miller, writing in MedPage Today
Election Results and Policy Plans
The midterm outcomes were not settled in the source material. The authors describe a Democratic House majority as near certain and the Senate as a 50-50 prospect, but these are their assessments of the contest, not final results. It is also unclear which vaccine-related actions, if any, the administration will take after the election, whether Kennedy will remain in his role, and how Congress or courts will respond.
The supplied article text ends partway through its discussion of the future of vaccines. It does not provide a complete account of the authors’ final argument, nor does it specify the exact proposals they expect to be revived. Readers should distinguish the reported policy disputes and advocacy activity from the authors’ predictions about what may happen next.
The New Congress Takes Office
The next formal milestone is January 3, 2027, when the new Congress is scheduled to convene. Its composition will determine the balance of legislative power, but the opinion argues that agency decisions, executive actions, court proceedings and state-level proposals will also shape the vaccine debate.
For now, the developments to watch are the final election results, any changes in federal vaccine guidance or advisory bodies, and further state action on school exemptions. The authors call for continued coordination among policymakers and advocates, but no specific post-election policy timetable is confirmed in the supplied material.
Key Questions
What is the central argument of the opinion?
Grossman and Miller argue that more pro-vaccine members of Congress may not prevent continued federal and state policy challenges. They expect executive branch actions to remain influential after the midterms.
Are the 2026 midterm results known?
No. The article, published October 20, describes the House and Senate outlook as forecasts. It does not report final election results.
What vaccine policy disputes does the article describe?
The authors cite disputes over ACIP membership and recommendations, federal health and FDA advisory groups, respiratory vaccine guidance, and state proposals to broaden school vaccine exemptions.
Has Kennedy announced the policies the authors expect?
The supplied material does not identify a confirmed list of future policies. The claim that Kennedy may pursue new or previously blocked measures is the authors’ prediction.
When does the new Congress begin?
The article says the new Congress is scheduled to convene on January 3, 2027. The authors expect vaccine policy debates to continue beyond that date.
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